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SDP 3 / CIN 4
SDPSan Diego Padres46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRandy VásquezConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
SDP46%ML -138
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN54%ML +116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.8 pts

Model gives CIN 54.2% while the market implies 44.4% — a 10-point gap I can't justify. San Diego has the better record (73-65) and the better starter: Vasquez at 4.02 ERA/1.28 WHIP over 123 IP versus Lodolo at 5.24/1.54. Siding with the market. Model's 10.5 total sits a run above the 9.5 line despite a neutral park and two sub-4.7 RPG offenses, so under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +116 draftkings / U -146 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -102 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-138 / +116SDP / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -119 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total