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OAK 5 / CIN 6
OAKOakland Athletics58%
CINCincinnati Reds42%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterMason BarnettConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
OAK58%ML +145
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN42%ML -167

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.7 pts

Model takes OAK at 57.6% against a market implying 59.2% home — a large gap with no supporting fundamentals. OAK is 45-69 with a .512 OPS and 3.3 RPG, and Abbott (3.91 ERA, 122 IP) is the more established starter than Barnett (4.85 ERA, 29.7 IP). Side with CIN and the market. OAK's weak offense in a neutral park (PF 1.00) argues under 9.5.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mason BarnettOAK starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -133 draftkings / U +110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 fanduel / U -150 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+145 / -167OAK / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total