MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPITPittsburgh Pirates45%
CINCincinnati Reds55%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterMitch KellerProbable
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsProbable
PIT45%ML +130
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CIN55%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.576%
O 5.562%
O 6.547%
O 7.533%
O 8.522%
O 9.513%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -154PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total