MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPITPittsburgh Pirates54%
CINCincinnati Reds46%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton AshcraftProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottProbable
PIT54%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
CIN46%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.540%
O 7.527%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.524%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +100PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total