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PIT 7 / CIN 8
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterHunter GreeneConfirmed
PIT46%ML -127
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN54%ML +108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.9 pts

Model favors CIN 54.1% vs market 45.3% — an 8.9pp gap flags market_disagreement_large. PIT has better record (55-55 vs 51-57) and offense (.710 OPS vs .629), yet model picks CIN; this triggers offense_defense_mismatch. Greene's 7.06 ERA in 21.7 IP is worrying despite 12.05 K/9. Skenes (3.65 ERA, 120.7 IP) is the superior pitcher. Defer to market; lean PIT.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -145 fanatics / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Hunter GreeneCIN starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%under
O 5.567%under
O 6.553%under
O 7.539%under
O 8.527%under
O 9.517%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-127 / +108PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total