sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CLE 6 / CIN 5
CLECleveland Guardians45%
CINCincinnati Reds55%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
CLE45%ML +140
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CIN55%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.9 pts

Market has CIN at 59.7% vs model's CLE 55.1%, a 4.6pp gap favoring home. Burns' 2.42 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 107.7 IP is elite; Cecconi's 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP is exploitable. Model underweights the starter gap. Total lean over: model 8.98 vs market 8.5, neutral park, and CIN offense shows better than 4.1 RPG suggests.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -111 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -164CLE / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total