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scheduled
CLECleveland Guardians55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
CLE55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
CIN45%ML -160

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.3 pts

Market has CIN at 59.7% vs model's CLE 55.1%, a 4.6pp gap favoring home. Burns' 2.42 ERA and 10.37 K/9 over 107.7 IP is elite; Cecconi's 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP is exploitable. Model underweights the starter gap. Total lean over: model 8.98 vs market 8.5, neutral park, and CIN offense shows better than 4.1 RPG suggests.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.8
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -124 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 bovada / U -137 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.576%
O 5.562%
O 6.547%
O 7.533%
O 8.522%
O 9.513%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+135 / -160CLE / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total