MLB / mlb / live
CHC 8 / CIN 4CHCChicago Cubs52%
CINCincinnati Reds48%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
CHC52%ML -131
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CIN48%ML +110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew BoydCHC starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 fanatics / U +100 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 fanduel / U -113 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-131 / +110CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total