MLB / mlb / live
scheduledCHCChicago Cubs52%
CINCincinnati Reds48%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJavier AssadProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloProbable
CHC52%ML -106
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
CIN48%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Javier AssadCHC starter / away
Projected K4.0
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.8
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 betrivers / U +122 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.522%
O 7.512%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -112CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -112 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total