MLB / mlb / live
PHI 4 / CIN 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
CINCincinnati Reds47%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
PHI53%ML -168
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
CIN47%ML +141
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 14 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +112 fanduel / U -130 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%over
O 11.53%over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 14 strikeouts.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +125 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-168 / +141PHI / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total