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MIL 6 / CIN 5
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
CINCincinnati Reds42%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CINHome starterRhett LowderConfirmed
MIL58%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN42%ML +111

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts

Market and model align on MIL favorite (model 58.3%, market 57%). Drohan shows better peripherals (3.40 ERA, 8.87 K/9, 1.17 WHIP) vs Lowder (4.82 ERA, 7.22 K/9, 1.45 WHIP). MIL's .972 OPS dwarfs CIN's .629. Model's 8.11 total sits 1.4 runs under market's 9.5; I lean under given pitcher advantage and CIN's anemic 2.3 RPG.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -150 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 5.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +111MIL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -107 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total