MLB / mlb / live
NYM 9 / CIN 1NYMNew York Mets46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260616_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
NYM46%ML -137
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
CIN54%ML +116
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.581%under
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-137 / +116NYM / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total