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NYM 3 / CIN 5
NYMNew York Mets45%
CINCincinnati Reds55%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterKodai SengaConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
CINHome starterBrady SingerConfirmed
NYM45%ML -118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CIN55%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.2 pts

Model favors CIN at 55.5% vs market 47.1%, an 8.4pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Singer's 5.61 ERA in 61 IP is stable mediocrity; Senga's 9.00 ERA in only 20 IP is a tiny sample masking his 10.35 K/9 upside. Neither side has an comparison worth claiming. Model total of 8.85 is 1.15 runs under the market 10.0 line—lean under but not with conviction given Senga's small sample.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kodai SengaNYM starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -170 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 5.519%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 betrivers / U -118 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / -102NYM / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total