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NYM 0 / CIN 12
NYMNew York Mets36%
CINCincinnati Reds64%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterTobias MyersConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
NYM36%ML +115
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CIN64%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.5 pts

Model has CIN at 64% vs market 56%, an 8-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Burns' 2.14 ERA in 75.7 IP is legit, but Myers' 4.05 ERA in only 33.3 IP is thin data. CIN offense is weak (3.1 RPG, .629 OPS). Burns' profile argues under on total.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tobias MyersNYM starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%under
O 2.549%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.513%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.7Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%over
O 6.549%over
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+115 / -139NYM / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total