MLB / mlb / live
ARI 5 / CIN 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac GallenConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
ARI46%ML -113
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
CIN54%ML -107
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zac GallenARI starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -107 draftkings / U +117 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +114 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-113 / -107ARI / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total