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ARI 5 / CIN 2
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo Rodriguez
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterNick Lodolo
ARI55%ML -104
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
CIN45%ML -115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.4 pts

Rodriguez (2.52 ERA, 78.7 IP) is a true sample with measurable skill. Lodolo (5.51 ERA, 32.7 IP) is struggling. Market sees a coinflip; model leans ARI 55.2%. Arizona's offense is league-worst at 2.5 RPG so margin is tight. Total: model 9.15 vs market 9.5, lean under given Rodriguez's form.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 draftkings / U -145 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 draftkings / U -105 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -115ARI / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total