MLB / mlb / live
ARI 1 / CIN 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMichael Soroka
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterRhett Lowder
ARI55%ML -145
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
CIN45%ML +122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Michael SorokaARI starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +120 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 fanatics / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-145 / +122ARI / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total