MLB / mlb / live
KCR 9 / CIN 2KCRKansas City Royals46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterLuinder Avila
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterLyon Richardson
KCR46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN54%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts
Both pitchers lack season-level ERA/K9/WHIP despite being marked 'full' data quality. Burns has 10 starts but no stats; Avila only 1 start. Model top features reference pitcher stats that appear missing. Market implies CIN 66%, model 60%—directional agreement but without pitcher fundamentals I cannot evaluate the 6pp gap or the 8.95 total vs 8.5 market line.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total