MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / CIN 4KCRKansas City Royals55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterNoah Cameron
Model pickKCR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew Abbott
KCR55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CIN45%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts
Model favors KCR at 55.2% vs market 46.9%, flagging large disagreement. Away pitcher Noah Cameron has null stats across ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts—data quality issue not captured by flags. CIN offense superior (.629 OPS vs .518) but model picks worse team. Pass on incomplete data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total