MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / CIN 4KCRKansas City Royals55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterNoah Cameron
Model pickKCR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew Abbott
KCR55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CIN45%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.5 pts
Model favors KCR at 55.2% vs market 46.9%, flagging large disagreement. Away pitcher Noah Cameron has null stats across ERA/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts—data quality issue not captured by flags. CIN offense superior (.629 OPS vs .518) but model picks worse team. Pass on incomplete data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -125KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total