MLB / mlb / live
scheduledSTLSt. Louis Cardinals40%
CINCincinnati Reds60%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterStarter TBD
Model pickCIN moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterStarter TBD
STL40%ML +101
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
CIN60%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.9 pts
Model likes CIN at 58% vs market 52%, but STL's .812 OPS dominates CIN's .629 despite scoring fewer runs. Singer's 6.75 ERA in minimal IP (4.0) is noise; Liberatore 1.80 ERA also tiny sample (5.0 IP). Market total 10.0 vs model 8.89 suggests oddsmakers see offense; I lean under given pitcher uncertainty and small samples making both ERAs unreliable.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+101 / -120STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total