MLB / mlb / live
STL 8 / CIN 1STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterAndre Pallante
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChris Paddack
STL42%ML -107
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CIN58%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.8 pts
STL's 0.812 OPS vs CIN's 0.629 OPS is a massive gap, yet STL scores only 3.5 RPG. Model leans CIN at 60.2% vs market 53.3%—7pp comparison seems unjustified given offensive profile mismatch. Pitcher stats missing entirely; can't evaluate ace/control narrative. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.95 suggests lean under.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-107 / -110STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total