MLB / mlb / live
HOU 10 / CIN 0HOUHouston Astros42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterNick Lodolo
HOU42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN58%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.5 pts
Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is brutal small-sample noise. Lodolo stats missing makes total impossible to handicap. Lean CIN on pitching comparison but no conviction.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -139HOU / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total