MLB / mlb / live
HOU 1 / CIN 3HOUHouston Astros37%
CINCincinnati Reds63%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickCIN moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase Burns
HOU37%ML +137
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CIN63%ML -163
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts
Model at 62.9% vs market 59.1% on CIN is modest comparison. Both pitchers lack resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9) despite 10 starts each—data pipeline issue reduces confidence. HOU's 4.4 RPG offense superior to CIN's 3.1 despite worse record. Model total 8.77 slightly above market 8.5; neutral park. Lean CIN on home comparison but pass strength given data gaps.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+137 / -163HOU / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total