MLB / mlb / live
COL 13 / CIN 2COLColorado Rockies36%
CINCincinnati Reds64%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterTomoyuki Sugano
Model pickCIN moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterBrandon Williamson
COL36%ML +129
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CIN64%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.1 pts
Model at 64% vs market 58% on CIN—modest comparison. CIN's 6.1 RPG and .629 OPS over 29 games is solid, COL weak at 4.4 RPG/.531 OPS. Missing pitcher stats makes starter evaluation impossible; can't confirm ace or dud. Model total 8.81 vs market 9.5 suggests under, but neutral park (0.997) and no flags mean thin conviction.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+129 / -152COL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total