sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

COL 9 / CHW 6
COLColorado Rockies46%
CHWChicago White Sox54%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterJose QuintanaConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
COL46%ML +210
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHW54%ML -256

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.2 pts

Market implies 67.7% on CHW versus the model's 54.5% — here the market looks right. CHW's 6.4 RPG and .729 OPS against COL's 3.8 RPG and .531 OPS is a wide gap, and Martin (3.84 ERA) is well ahead of Quintana (5.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Model's 9.7 total overshoots the 8.0 line, but a 1.067 park factor plus Quintana's rate stats still support a modest over.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total10.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jose QuintanaCOL starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +103 draftkings / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+210 / -256COL / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total