MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / CHW 2PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterLake BacharConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
PIT42%ML +111
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW58%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +132 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+111 / -132PIT / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total