MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / CHW 0PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
CHWChicago White Sox56%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
CHWHome starterHagen SmithConfirmed
PIT44%ML -104
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHW56%ML -116
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 betmgm / U +124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Hagen SmithCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-104 / -116PIT / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total