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TEX 4 / CHW 10
TEXTexas Rangers37%
CHWChicago White Sox63%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline63%Model 20260824_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
TEX37%ML +105
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CHW63%ML -123

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

CHW is the better side on merit: Burke's 3.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 146 IP top Gore's 4.26/1.23, and Chicago's 4.4 RPG and .729 OPS beat Texas's 3.9 and .698. But the model's 62.8% versus the market's 54.4% is a large gap, so I take the side without the model's conviction. Two high-K starters against a weak Texas offense argue slightly under 8.0 despite the 1.067 park factor.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -153 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betonlineag / U +120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%under
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -123TEX / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total