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TEX 7 / CHW 11
TEXTexas Rangers46%
CHWChicago White Sox54%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGromConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
CHWHome starterAnthony KayConfirmed
TEX46%ML -114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHW54%ML -103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Model's 8.86 total sits 1.86 runs above the 7.0 market line despite two of the weakest offenses on the board (3.7 and 3.5 RPG, .729/.698 OPS) and deGrom's 11.16 K/9, 1.13 WHIP. That looks like a structural miss the mild 1.067 park factor doesn't justify. Slight preference for Texas at near-even money on the starter comparison over Kay (3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), but it's close to a coin flip.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 2 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%under
O 3.585%under
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.529%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 fanduel / U +104 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-114 / -103TEX / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total