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TEX 11 / CHW 2
TEXTexas Rangers43%
CHWChicago White Sox57%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterKumar RockerConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
CHWHome starterJosé UrquidyConfirmed
TEX43%ML +113
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CHW57%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.6 pts

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.38 ERA over 72 IP belongs to a substitute profile), so the 62.8% model number is built on an unreliable input versus market's 55.1%. CHW still has the better offense (.729 OPS, 4.4 RPG) and record against Rocker's 4.46 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Slight lean home, no total view with the starter unresolved at a 1.067 park.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kumar RockerTEX starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +102 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

José UrquidyCHW starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -143 betonlineag / U +126 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+113 / -132TEX / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -109
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total