MLB / mlb / live
CIN 0 / CHW 5CINCincinnati Reds42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett LowderConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
CHWHome starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
CIN42%ML +128
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW58%ML -150
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betrivers / U -137 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Luis CastilloCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.8Actual 10 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%over
O 8.52%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -150CIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -104
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total