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NYY 5 / CHW 6
NYYNew York Yankees58%
CHWChicago White Sox42%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
NYY58%ML -147
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW42%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 57.0% — tight convergence. Schlittler's 2.07 ERA and 10.84 K/9 over 130 IP is elite, Martin's 3.49 ERA is solid. Ace matchup flag fires but model total 8.73 vs market 7.5 is a 1.23-run gap, approaching structural miss territory. Rate Field PF 1.067 slightly favors offense. Model leans over, I'll follow cautiously given the park context outweighs ace discount here.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.8
Projected total10.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 bovada / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 fanatics / U +115 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-147 / +124NYY / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total