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KCR 5 / CHW 4
KCRKansas City Royals58%
CHWChicago White Sox42%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CHWHome starterAnthony KayConfirmed
KCR58%ML +116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
CHW42%ML -136

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.7 pts

Model picks KCR at 58% but market has CHW at 55%, a 13-point disagreement. KCR's offense is historically poor (.518 OPS, 2.0 RPG) yet model leans road underdog. SHAP features show home walks and away plate appearances driving predictions—noisy inputs. Avila's 5.06 ERA in 42 IP suggests total lean under market 8.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -112 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+116 / -136KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total