MLB / mlb / live
KCR 1 / CHW 2KCRKansas City Royals47%
CHWChicago White Sox53%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
KCR47%ML +108
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CHW53%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U +100 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.562%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+108 / -128KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total