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LAD 7 / CHW 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterSean Burke
LAD59%ML -213
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
CHW41%ML +175

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.5 pts

Market and model align strongly on LAD (market 66%, model 59%). Yamamoto's 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are elite; Burke is solid but outmatched. Model predicts 9.19 total in a 1.067 park factor venue vs market 8.0—hitter park supports over. SHAP shows park factor driving total down, but actual PF of 1.067 is modestly hitter-friendly.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -145 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 draftkings / U +110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-213 / +175LAD / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+101)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total