MLB / mlb / live
DET 1 / CHW 7DETDetroit Tigers55%
CHWChicago White Sox45%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterAnthony Kay
DET55%ML -112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
CHW45%ML -104
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Model has DET at 55.2%, market at 53.6% — close alignment. DET offense is league-worst at 3.1 RPG/.582 OPS, which makes offense_defense_mismatch flag puzzling since model picks the worse team. Valdez (1.50 ERA, 60 IP) is legitimately excellent. Model total of 9.32 vs market 7.5 is a 1.82-run gap; likely overweighting CHW offense in a hitter park against an ace. Lean DET, lean under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-112 / -104DET / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total