MLB / mlb / live
DET 3 / CHW 4DETDetroit Tigers40%
CHWChicago White Sox60%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTroy Melton
Model pickCHW moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterErick Fedde
DET40%ML -109
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CHW60%ML -109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.2 pts
Model sees CHW at 60% but market implies 48.5%, a 12pp gap. DET offense is brutal (3.0 RPG, .582 OPS) but CHW hasn't dominated (29-27). Pitcher stats missing makes this opaque. Lean DET on market respect.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-109 / -109DET / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total