MLB / mlb / live
DET 3 / CHW 4DETDetroit Tigers40%
CHWChicago White Sox60%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTroy Melton
Model pickCHW moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterErick Fedde
DET40%ML -109
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CHW60%ML -109
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.7 pts
Model sees CHW at 60% but market implies 48.5%, a 12pp gap. DET offense is brutal (3.0 RPG, .582 OPS) but CHW hasn't dominated (29-27). Pitcher stats missing makes this opaque. Lean DET on market respect.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -109DET / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total