MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / CHW 6KCRKansas City Royals49%
CHWChicago White Sox51%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterKris Bubic
Model pickCHW moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterAnthony Kay
KCR49%ML -137
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
CHW51%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.0 pts
Bubic missing all season stats (0 IP, null ERA/WHIP/K9) makes this unpickable for moneyline. Model has CHW 50.6%, market implies KCR 55.6%—a coin flip. Park factor 1.067 and model total 9.09 vs market 8.5 suggest modest over lean, but without Bubic's profile confidence is low.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-137 / +115KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -116
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total