MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / CHW 6KCRKansas City Royals56%
CHWChicago White Sox44%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth Lugo
Model pickKCR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterNoah Schultz
KCR56%ML -112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
CHW44%ML -105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.9 pts
Schultz has 5 starts but null IP/ERA/K9 — data quality is suspect despite 'full' label. Lugo shows 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP over 10 starts, which is arithmetically impossible and signals broken data. Model leans KCR at 55.7% vs market's 50.9% — tiny comparison, essentially a coinflip. Pass on side due to unreliable pitcher inputs. Lean over 8.0 given park factor 1.067 and CHW's 4.8 RPG at home.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-112 / -105KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total