MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / CHW 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterStephen Kolek
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterErick Fedde
KCR42%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CHW58%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.8 pts
Model favors CHW 57.5% vs market's 45.8%. KCR's offense (.518 OPS) is league-worst but model's SHAP shows away_rolling_short_road_runs_allowed driving CHW pick—likely structural overweight. Pitcher stats missing; park slightly inflated. Market disagreement warrants caution; lean KCR.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total