MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / CHW 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterStephen Kolek
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterErick Fedde
KCR42%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW58%ML +105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.8 pts
Model favors CHW 57.5% vs market's 45.8%. KCR's offense (.518 OPS) is league-worst but model's SHAP shows away_rolling_short_road_runs_allowed driving CHW pick—likely structural overweight. Pitcher stats missing; park slightly inflated. Market disagreement warrants caution; lean KCR.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105KCR / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total