MLB / mlb / live
SEA 1 / CHW 2SEASeattle Mariners46%
CHWChicago White Sox54%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickCHW moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
SEA46%ML -130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
CHW54%ML +110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.8 pts
Model has CHW 53.5% but market implies SEA 54.8% — an 8.3pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. Gilbert's 5.06 ERA over 5.1 IP (likely opener role) and Martin's missing stats make pitcher evaluation impossible. Model total 8.85 vs market 8.0 is a significant gap in a hitter park (PF 1.067). Defer to market on both side and total.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-130 / +110SEA / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total