MLB / mlb / live
SEA 1 / CHW 2SEASeattle Mariners46%
CHWChicago White Sox54%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickCHW moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
SEA46%ML -130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHW54%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts
Model has CHW 53.5% but market implies SEA 54.8% — an 8.3pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. Gilbert's 5.06 ERA over 5.1 IP (likely opener role) and Martin's missing stats make pitcher evaluation impossible. Model total 8.85 vs market 8.0 is a significant gap in a hitter park (PF 1.067). Defer to market on both side and total.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-130 / +110SEA / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total