MLB / mlb / live
SEA 12 / CHW 8SEASeattle Mariners59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterEmerson Hancock
Model pickSEA moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterSean Burke
SEA59%ML -139
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHW41%ML +118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts
Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4 IP equally meaningless. Both pitchers under 10 IP makes this a bullpen game in disguise. Total model-market gap (9.31 vs 8.0) is large but pitcher data too thin to justify a lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-139 / +118SEA / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total