MLB / mlb / live
LAA 2 / CHW 5LAALos Angeles Angels46%
CHWChicago White Sox54%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterJosé Soriano
Model pickCHW moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
LAA46%ML -134
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
CHW54%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.7 pts
Model gives CHW 53.5% vs market's 45.2%—an 8.3pp gap triggers the flag. Soriano's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is noise, not signal. Martin has no resolved stats despite 10 starts. Total model at 9.09 vs market 8.0 in a 1.067 park argues over, but the moneyline miss makes me skeptical of the model's read here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-134 / +115LAA / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total