MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMIAMiami Marlins36%
CHCChicago Cubs64%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterRyan GustoProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanProbable
MIA36%ML +147
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CHC64%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.573%
O 3.553%
O 4.534%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.586%
O 4.574%
O 5.560%
O 6.544%
O 7.531%
O 8.520%
O 9.512%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+147 / -175MIA / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total