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MIA 3 / CHC 2
MIAMiami Marlins41%
CHCChicago Cubs59%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
MIA41%ML +156
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHC59%ML -188

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.2 pts

Model (59.2%) and market (61.4%) agree on the Cubs, so no reason to fight it; Gausman's 172 IP and 9.26 K/9 outclass Gusto's 1.44 WHIP. The total is the real disconnect: model at 8.93 against a 6.5 market line at a 0.95 park factor Wrigley, which usually signals wind/weather the model can't see. Taking the under side.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -146 draftkings / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 draftkings / U +118 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+156 / -188MIA / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total