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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
MIAMiami Marlins36%
CHCChicago Cubs64%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterRyan GustoProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanProbable
MIA36%ML +147
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CHC64%ML -175

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.9
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.573%
O 3.553%
O 4.534%
O 5.520%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.3
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.586%
O 4.574%
O 5.560%
O 6.544%
O 7.531%
O 8.520%
O 9.512%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+147 / -175MIA / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total