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ATL 6 / CHC 3
ATLAtlanta Braves42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
ATL42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC58%ML -146

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 fanatics / U -149 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%under
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -113 fanduel / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -146ATL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total