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PIT 4 / CHC 3
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%
CHCChicago Cubs50%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline50%Model 20260907_auto
CHCHome starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
PIT50%ML +140
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CHC50%ML -167

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.0 pts

Model's 50.1% on CHC is well below market's 59.1%, and the gap looks unjustified: Chicago is 83-66 with 5.0 RPG versus Pittsburgh's 3.2 RPG, and Boyd (4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) edges Chandler (4.25, 1.34). Side with the market. The 8.68-run model total is 1.7 above the 7.0 line despite Wrigley's 0.95 park factor, so under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 betonlineag / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -167PIT / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total