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PIT 3 / CHC 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates52%
CHCChicago Cubs48%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
CHCHome starterClay HolmesConfirmed
PIT52%ML +106
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CHC48%ML -126

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts

Model takes PIT despite the worse record (74-74 vs 82-66) and lower scoring (4.2 vs 5.0 RPG), which is the classic mismatch red flag. Holmes' 2.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home match up fine with Skenes. Wrigley at 0.951 park factor plus two sub-4.00 ERA starters argues under the 9.0 line, against the model's 9.30.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.5
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -135 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Clay HolmesCHC starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -138 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+106 / -126PIT / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -109
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total