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MIL 9 / CHC 4
MILMilwaukee Brewers50%
CHCChicago Cubs50%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterRobert GasserConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
CHCHome starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
MIL50%ML +105
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CHC50%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Near coin flip: model has MIL at 50.5% while market implies 54.1% for CHC, so the gap is small. MIL's 85-53 record versus 78-60 is the cleanest signal, and Gasser's 8.53 K/9 offsets his 4.59 ERA against Boyd's 3.99. Team offense figures (CHC 8.6 RPG on .694 OPS) look internally inconsistent, so I keep this to a lean. Wrigley at 0.951 park factor argues under the 10.0 line.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -158 fanduel / U +130 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -139 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125MIL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total