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CHW 5 / CHC 7
CHWChicago White Sox46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
CHW46%ML +140
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -162

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts

Market has CHC at 60.3% while the model sits at 53.7%; Imanaga's 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 137.1 IP at a 0.951 park factor supports the market's number more than the model's. Castillo's line is a fallback with no resolved stats, so the 9.23 model total is unreliable against the 8.0 line - no view on the total.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Luis CastilloCHW starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betrivers / U +110 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+140 / -162CHW / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total