MLB / mlb / live
STL 0 / CHC 3STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%
CHCChicago Cubs59%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260810_auto
CHCHome starterClay HolmesConfirmed
STL41%ML +164
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHC59%ML -194
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Clay HolmesCHC starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -138 fanduel / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+164 / -194STL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+106)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -107 / U -112
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total