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scheduled
NYYNew York Yankees46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterMax FriedProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterDavid PetersonProbable
NYY46%ML -118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CHC54%ML +100

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.1 pts

Model has CHC 54% vs market 49% — small comparison evaporates against Peterson's 5.80 ERA in 95 IP. Fried (3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) is the better starter by far. Model total 8.64 runs vs market 6.5 is a 2-run structural miss; Wrigley PF 0.95 and Fried's quality argue under. Lean NYY on pitching advantage.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / +100NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-183)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -104 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total